Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedee47fee53b75cc659114bf9647d15710e0cccc249810b19a253db82e451aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- No Hoodwinkof Ilbirs eSports, No Hoodwink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b1f…d6d5backed No Hoodwink | 55c | 1,822$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.22 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked No Hoodwink | 62c | 1,169$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.39 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 1,165$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.85 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 1,016$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.18 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…3a84backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 988.82$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…95e2backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 840.91$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 815.24$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.32 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…9704backed No Hoodwink | 70c | 649.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked No Hoodwink | 49c | 491.27$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed No Hoodwink | 42c | 475.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.42 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed No Hoodwink | 42c | 473.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.52 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 413.47$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.23 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked No Hoodwink | 54c | 355.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 341.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 316.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 315.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 299$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No Hoodwink | 33c | 294.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.45 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…797fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 287.79$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked No Hoodwink | 60c | 223.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Ilbirs eSports | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed No Hoodwink | 63c | 198.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 194.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed No Hoodwink | 46c | 175.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed No Hoodwink | 68c | 170.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked No Hoodwink | 62c | 165.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 139.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…2049backed Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 129.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 113.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed No Hoodwink | 53c | 106.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 70.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed No Hoodwink | 49c | 69.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 40.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No Hoodwink | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 28.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No Hoodwink | 63c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -13.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…61b5backed No Hoodwink | 53c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 19.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsNo Hoodwink won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.