MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d2e83e54313fbd02121f916c38a00324d41641c003055e56c31546be5987a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 23,901$11,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,667.67 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 12,320$6,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,529.39 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 53c | 6,557$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.46 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 49c | 1,256$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.59 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,240$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 753.96$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.37 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 54c | 719.99$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.39 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 519$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 490$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 454$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 357$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 320$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 267$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 31c | 94.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 30c | 94.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 54c | 91.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 54c | 58.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 54c | 48.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a25…443fbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 45c | 39.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 39.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…6690backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 44c | 35.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 34.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 32.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 51c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9b…41f9backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 48c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 16.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.