MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b4db4b956e546a7a176b63235d69f29bfa15ae9b7591fdcf3366d6d563d8fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 61,494$33,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,720.97 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 45c | 55,200$24,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,839.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 21,996$12,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,992.58 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 46c | 15,097$6,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.61 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Under | 45c | 6,440$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.03 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 4,317$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 2,705$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.29 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…ea7bbacked Under | 45c | 2,208$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 1,755$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 1,442$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 1,408$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.31 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 968$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 46c | 697.88$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.02 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 599.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 45c | 578$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 56c | 549$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 328.34$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 293.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 260$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 259.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 55c | 159.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 46c | 156.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 46c | 126$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 55c | 125.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 101.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Over | 55c | 100.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 91.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 54c | 60.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 46c | 57.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 55.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 54.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Over | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 53c | 49.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 55c | 34.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 56c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 68c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 16.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.