MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222168d4b8495b02dd0849f77f21b2ede3b4c4fe51bc1e75b6156e931e115d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 2,360$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 1,999$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.19 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 1,696$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 1,583$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 823.97$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 734$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 670.23$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 442.69$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 407.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Minnesota Twins | 77c | 284.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 281.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 217.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 205.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 184.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 179.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 167$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 103.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 102.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Twins | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 98.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 92.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 86.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Minnesota Twins | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 48.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 32c | 46.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 46.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 38.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 38.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 36.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 33.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 32.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 18.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 15.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 16.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.