Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e0bb2c4d9556259db031f63e021dba31f003020944950014a95e84f9fc9f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 876.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 511.22$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 344.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 311.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 19c | 281.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 243.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 18c | 214$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 14c | 172.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 16c | 166.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 16c | 145.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 142.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 135.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 15c | 133.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 78c | 128.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 112.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 17c | 110.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 13c | 107.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 26c | 105.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 13c | 97.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 19c | 91.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 78.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 17c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 36c | 66.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 62.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 62.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 20c | 57.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 46.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 32c | 44.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 37.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 67c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…5805backed No | 76c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.