Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa273376e18fa49561cb82eff745e6bc1e0c22f8ad1aa3100daab7b1767e3e5a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 830.41$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 66c | 409.57$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 398.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 274.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 236.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 40c | 233.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 230.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 53c | 213.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 68c | 200.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…4e1bbacked No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 14c | 133.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 42c | 128.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 124.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 98.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 96.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 92.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 89.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 28c | 89.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 53c | 88.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 74c | 88.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 43c | 86.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 83.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 34c | 81.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 79.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 69c | 74.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 74.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 71.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 43c | 69.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 66.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 65.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 25c | 55.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 55.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…bf05backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 55c | 48.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 48.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 48c | 46.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 46.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…b6fcbacked Yes | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 65c | 44.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 76c | 43.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 56c | 43.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 39.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 49c | 35.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 72c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 34.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 42c | 30.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 60c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 24.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 57c | 22.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdf…eba6backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 51c | 20.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed No | 62c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.