Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f32aff304e7788b64c14bbf979296ba383ab5a00963a35eba22030efcd31a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 23c | 1,611$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.91 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,266$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 696.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 413.11$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 8c | 399.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 385.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.34 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 372.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 354.74$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 331.2$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 6c | 299.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 259.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 25c | 240.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 64c | 237.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 235.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 234.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 23c | 199.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 193.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes | 25c | 180.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 175$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 139.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 120.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 113.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 19c | 101.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 77c | 98.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 64c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 86.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 84.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 84.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 79.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 20c | 78.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 65.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 31c | 64.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 55.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 70c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 53.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 50.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 48.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 65c | 46.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 42.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 40.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 76c | 38.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 78c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 34.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 71c | 31.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 26.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 55c | 24.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 65c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 19.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 79c | 18.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 78c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.