Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e89ba4dd2c85d08dce3d7b273bb5d9fb471fdb157de70e8658c2cd621b43d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellucciof Bublik, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15dd…11dbbacked Bellucci | 53c | 5,700$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Bublik | 47c | 1,509$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.34 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | -12.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Bublik | 47c | 1,447$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.08 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Bublik | 47c | 1,281$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.01 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bublik | 46c | 600$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.23 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Bublik | 46c | 544.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.32 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Bellucci | 53c | 533.98$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.97 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Bellucci | 54c | 406.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.16 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Bublik | 50c | 401.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bellucci | 50c | 356.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Bublik | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Bellucci | 54c | 266.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…1ab1backed Bublik | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Bublik | 50c | 250.12$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Bublik | 46c | 221.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bellucci | 54c | 213.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Bellucci | 55c | 181.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Bublik | 47c | 175.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bublik | 49c | 165.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Bellucci | 51c | 162$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Bellucci | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Bublik | 47c | 128.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bublik | 46c | 98.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Bellucci | 54c | 91.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 356 | 53.9%192 W · 164 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Bellucci | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 440 | 42.3%186 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Bublik | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Bublik | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Bublik | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…b55cbacked Bellucci | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Bublik | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Bublik | 51c | 57.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 194 | 47.4%92 W · 102 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Bellucci | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 582 | 53.3%310 W · 272 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Bublik | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 415 | 44.3%184 W · 231 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…27ddbacked Bellucci | 54c | 51.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Bublik | 47c | 50.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Bublik | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,540 | 49.2%758 W · 782 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…8821backed Bublik | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Bublik | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Bublik | 47c | 40.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Bublik | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 373 | 36.5%136 W · 237 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bellucci | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Bublik | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 932 | 58.5%545 W · 387 L | +22.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Bellucci | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Bellucci | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 143 | 60.1%86 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…c070backed Bublik | 69c | 27.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Bublik | 47c | 23.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Bublik | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)this page
- Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander BublikMattia Bellucci won
- Mattia Bellucci vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs BublikBellucci won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.