MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1101493b75fac4b3213c1729e7bb0c8d53134ed65781eaa2f1156f295661e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 22,238$14,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,184.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…1ed9backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 17,590$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,889.74 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 16,000$9,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,919.98 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 15,695$5,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,001.4 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 6,626$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.53 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,740$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.87 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 2,228$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 1,593$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.47 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 950$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 913.69$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.23 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 638.3$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.77 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 591$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 380$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 350$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 350$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 341$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 334.46$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 242.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 74.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 47.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6545…3723backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.