Fifa International · resolved market
Harry Kane: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1817ccb65c1eccfdbfa2ef11e320543412493662daf490ddb29e827486ad35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 70c | 283.81$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 30c | 260.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 31c | 182.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…af43backed Yes | 66c | 153.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed No | 35c | 141.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 34c | 106.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Yes | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 31c | 47.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…2c05backed Yes | 69c | 43.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…9633backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…9d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c03…0f8dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 184 | 73.4%135 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsthis page
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 5+ shotsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsNo won
- Lawrence Ati Zigi: 2+ savesNo won
- Lawrence Ati Zigi: 3+ savesNo won
- Lawrence Ati Zigi: 4+ savesNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ assistsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 2+ goalsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ assistsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.