Europa Conference League · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a3fe679d8577fc57ec19a200cea072c45975c4c6514cd8f2804ef24e748c327

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,642 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	79c	6,160$4,876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284.67	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Over	23c	3,965$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$911.86	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	44c	2,562$1,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,441.32	1,604	38.9%624 W · 980 L	-17.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over	55c	2,200$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Over	22c	1,912$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.61	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+26%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over	22c	1,461$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.42	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed Over	28c	733.53$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.39	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	60c	657.01$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.89	380	47.4%180 W · 200 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	71c	617.45$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.62	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over	28c	599.99$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	162	42.6%69 W · 93 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over	62c	500$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	29c	499.98$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	880	48.2%424 W · 456 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	29c	499.98$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	1,316	50.8%668 W · 648 L	+33.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	29c	499.97$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	1,022	47.5%485 W · 537 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	77c	477.72$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.17	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	78c	476.46$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.87	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Over	26c	453.94$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under	77c	410.11$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.95	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	64c	400$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.38	126	33.3%42 W · 84 L	-21.7wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	61c	390.43$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.74	2,990	42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L	+9.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under	75c	275.36$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.89	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	14c	252.88$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	335	22.4%75 W · 260 L	-43.5wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	76c	243.77$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.14	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over	21c	240.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.48	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-6.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	25c	209.79$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.49	1,573	55.7%876 W · 697 L	+25.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed Over	30c	185.8$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.42	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.9wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over	25c	179.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over	25c	171.64$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	741	55.9%414 W · 327 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	75c	171.48$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.46	52	65.4%34 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under	71c	164.72$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.77	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Over	34c	158.34$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	103	44.7%46 W · 57 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under	77c	157$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.11	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under	76c	152.79$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.42	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	73c	147.19$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.49	82	54.9%45 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	73c	147.19$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.49	109	56%61 W · 48 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Over	50c	141.46$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.73	81	30.9%25 W · 56 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under	72c	136.36$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.8	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	72c	135.61$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.3	146	54.1%79 W · 67 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	72c	134.96$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.35	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	72c	134.96$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.35	90	56.7%51 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under	73c	130.81$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.73	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Under	72c	118.65$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.63	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under	72c	116.26$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.67	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over	25c	114.6$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-8.0wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	43c	112.39$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-5.8wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	27c	85.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.98	449	52.6%236 W · 213 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over	27c	84$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	23c	78.79$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	26c	77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	379	26.1%99 W · 280 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	72c	68.43$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.28	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under	72c	68.43$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.28	31	64.5%20 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff38…1d79backed Under	76c	64.84$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.56	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	79c	54.74$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.49	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under	72c	54.52$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.19	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Over	47c	51.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-5.0wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over	21c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over	22c	47.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over	62c	47.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	147	67.3%99 W · 48 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2463…f5b5backed Under	40c	39.28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed Over	51c	38.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	43c	35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.95	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-12.0wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under	72c	34.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Under	79c	30.94$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.51	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c01…59a0backed Under	73c	30.49$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.09	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under	73c	30.49$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.09	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Under	73c	29.63$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	79c	25.1$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.38	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Under	74c	21.66$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-6.8wins	-0.13per pick	61cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Under	73c	20.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.46	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	60c	19.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	123	55.3%68 W · 55 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c9…bf73backed Under	76c	19.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd478…0921backed Under	76c	19.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked Under	75c	18.7$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Under	75c	18.7$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under	73c	17.78$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Under	75c	17.42$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.41	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9744…cab4backed Under	78c	14.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.28	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5this page
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event