Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5169a4bf7db290e2751c2b3d545cd513b6f533765238b30f7cd4fd07c2882120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FSV Mainz 05of 1. FSV Mainz 05, RC Strasbourg Alsace
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 37c | 1,200$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 64c | 1,193$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 64c | 326.02$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 20c | 260$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 185.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 20c | 180$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 65c | 141.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 14c | 139$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 128.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…25fbbacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 111.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 43c | 90.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 21c | 85.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 79c | 81.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 80.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 79c | 61.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…fad4backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…c469backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 36.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 65c | 28.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…1375backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…b4f6backed RC Strasbourg Alsace | 80c | 22.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 69c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.