Europa Conference League · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f06ef96da3ceac23a3ec0b6d209645856b9087a3dc53731d07808face2fa9a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,281$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.81 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 68c | 753.86$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.84 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 70c | 701.35$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.35 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 438.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 73c | 293.67$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.26 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 31c | 271.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 31c | 271.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 31c | 265.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 246.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 77c | 204.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 32c | 186.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 72c | 179.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 74c | 110.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 31c | 92.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 28c | 88.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 23c | 84.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 31c | 73.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 65.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…c418backed Over | 70c | 63.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 69c | 56.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 75c | 51.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 69c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 69c | 30.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…05b8backed Over | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.