Europa Conference League · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45415856b6d11be0e9785478c57e1e5c209f6afcb395446f78e455f7c343012a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 485.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 10c | 356.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 8c | 276.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 67c | 248.06$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -20.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 12c | 236.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 10c | 179.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 12c | 158.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 9c | 133.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 14c | 124.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 13c | 124.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 14c | 123.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 34c | 49.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 66c | 30.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 76c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.