TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Andrew Johnson

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liam Draxlof Liam Draxl, Andrew Johnson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Andrew Johnson28c17,857$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014152.5%74 W · 67 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed Andrew Johnson28c7,143$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.984148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb399…608ebacked Liam Draxl72c6,944$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.443246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Liam Draxl73c5,667$4,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.494,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Liam Draxl73c5,133$3,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.396,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Andrew Johnson16c4,139$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.569,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8e…7ec6backed Liam Draxl72c3,611$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Liam Draxl72c1,787$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.451,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Liam Draxl72c1,550$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.6774654.8%409 W · 337 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Andrew Johnson33c1,164$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.1521246.2%98 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Liam Draxl72c1,140$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.062,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Andrew Johnson8c1,123$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0942643.9%187 W · 239 L-1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Liam Draxl72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28091050.2%457 W · 453 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Andrew Johnson22c811.41$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2943652.1%227 W · 209 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Andrew Johnson28c600$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Liam Draxl73c585.17$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.84,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc83d…535cbacked Andrew Johnson19c515.79$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984131.7%13 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Liam Draxl75c420.77$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.41,00857.7%582 W · 426 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Andrew Johnson6c415.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2156926%148 W · 421 L-23.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Andrew Johnson25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036348.2%175 W · 188 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Andrew Johnson28c390.57$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.363,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Liam Draxl72c333$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2498055.4%543 W · 437 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Andrew Johnson18c257.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.748,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Andrew Johnson11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.531035.2%109 W · 201 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Liam Draxl71c226.44$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.673,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805f…54a4backed Liam Draxl68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Andrew Johnson14c182.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.131,74548.1%840 W · 905 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Andrew Johnson25c162.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.195,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Andrew Johnson10c139.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca1…58acbacked Andrew Johnson13c125$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Andrew Johnson29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025144.2%111 W · 140 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Liam Draxl76c83.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.132,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeedc…d4c0backed Liam Draxl72c76.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3915669.9%109 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa678…dd59backed Andrew Johnson29c68.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015744.6%70 W · 87 L-11.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Andrew Johnson26c45.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7251545.8%236 W · 279 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b35…bdd3backed Andrew Johnson29c40.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Liam Draxl73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441664.4%268 W · 148 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Liam Draxl73c27.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2137060%222 W · 148 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Liam Draxl73c23.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3479062.2%491 W · 299 L+25.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce2…a9d0backed Liam Draxl75c22.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+34.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Liam Draxl71c22.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4520866.3%138 W · 70 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Liam Draxl72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.612654.8%69 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Liam Draxl72c19.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5622457.6%129 W · 95 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x147c…2540backed Liam Draxl72c17.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0430465.5%199 W · 105 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9545…d6f7backed Liam Draxl64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4b…f06fbacked Liam Draxl70c14.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.46869.1%47 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.