Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a9bdbbc3e55c1501225a5b638be338d212985535dbbf5d37d3b415a3dc5825a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 666.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 392.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 50c | 390.47$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 307.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 42c | 258.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 256.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 56c | 255.47$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 11c | 184.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 183.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 172.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 27c | 169.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 133.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 132.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 55c | 119.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 38c | 113.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 39c | 111.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 104.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 61c | 103.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 85.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 46c | 83.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 83.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 81.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 79.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 42c | 78.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 60c | 73.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 57c | 69.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 64.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 64.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 40c | 64.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 78c | 63.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 62.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 59.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 60c | 58.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 51c | 55.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 56c | 54.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 41c | 51.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 43.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 38.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 50c | 31.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 29.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 64c | 28.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…ef78backed No | 58c | 27.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 63c | 22.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 21.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 53c | 20.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 70c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.