Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa6d3a86ae9a6153b5734e98a19a4d76291a85ffd5b24e159f3f986d6823a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 2c | 561.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.12 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 75c | 374.47$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 262$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 261.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 6c | 216.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 215.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 8c | 178.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 69c | 159.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 66c | 150.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 143.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 117.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 110.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 12c | 102.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 95.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 50c | 86.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 80.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 26c | 75.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 33c | 57.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 49.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 43c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 44.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 63c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 38.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 79c | 36.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 31c | 33.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 25.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 53c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 22.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…18b9backed Yes | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 72c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed Yes | 66c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.