NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ac2966932811aa6d781e1d96ddfeb4e4f98bfab53359358a03e2f204d22a17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Hurricanes, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Hurricanes | 37c | 5,777$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.49 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Hurricanes | 37c | 2,264$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.53 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 62c | 2,086$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.68 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Hurricanes | 37c | 2,040$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.3 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Red Wings | 63c | 1,750$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.5 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hurricanes | 35c | 1,506$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.04 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hurricanes | 36c | 1,191$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Red Wings | 63c | 777$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.49 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Red Wings | 63c | 510$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Red Wings | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hurricanes | 37c | 462$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Hurricanes | 38c | 396.45$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Red Wings | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Hurricanes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Red Wings | 64c | 281.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Hurricanes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Red Wings | 63c | 164.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 64c | 154.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Hurricanes | 35c | 137.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Red Wings | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Hurricanes | 38c | 102$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Red Wings | 65c | 76.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Hurricanes | 38c | 65.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…9262backed Hurricanes | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings | 62c | 52.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Hurricanes | 37c | 49.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Red Wings | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Hurricanes | 36c | 45.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Red Wings | 63c | 44.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Hurricanes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Red Wings | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Red Wings | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Hurricanes vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.