Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ad093b9065225f7b830bf825b9d533991d03536399136c427399812bef4cb67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 311.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 219.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 211.96$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 200.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 161.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 159.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 122.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 106.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 25c | 102.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 91.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 90.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 86.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 83.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 65.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 60.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 59.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 31c | 47.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…89b8backed No | 75c | 39.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 75c | 28.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.