Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae7acb24c8419eeef2fcfd31783b950fc1c20a927e2bd021267e98163e4c08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 270.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 139.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 129.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 124.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 113.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 106.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 104.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 102.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 86.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 83.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 26c | 76.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 70.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 64.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 27c | 61.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 53.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 52.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 75c | 44.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 44.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 24c | 43.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 38.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 37.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 76c | 32.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 32.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 79c | 30.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 72c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.