Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aff84a6fb7d8b71871d47a8570ac92895b48991c3127242cf053e327d5f7c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 679.76$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 35c | 323.23$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 294.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 42c | 293$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 55c | 238.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 206.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 77c | 195.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 45c | 195.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 67c | 174.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 73c | 171.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…a2debacked No | 76c | 158.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 156.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 68c | 148.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 127.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 119.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 117.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 30c | 100.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 56c | 87.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 80.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 30c | 77.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 77.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 69c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 74.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 45c | 66.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 64.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 41c | 60.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 60.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 53.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 71c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 50c | 50.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 45.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 42c | 44.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 41c | 41.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 40.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 39.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed Yes | 35c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 32c | 32.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 52c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed No | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…1746backed No | 69c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…b674backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.