Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b14fbc71be4687dba4888d71d9a8e53e8f97bfa10876390642ee6318552fdb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 498.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 73c | 400.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 33c | 301.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 40c | 224.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 211.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 67c | 209.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 58c | 200.24$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 145.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 127.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 15c | 126.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 19c | 88.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 61c | 87.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 82.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 73.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 71.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 66.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 63.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 27c | 56.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 68c | 44.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 58c | 43.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked Yes | 66c | 37.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 66c | 36.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 37c | 36.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 68c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 69c | 31.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 42c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 57c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 24.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…a117backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.