Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b15ea83d293bb56c3afcdabd6a46310ffb2fb12d6f09281b074304fcd600547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 329.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 234.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 233.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…8360backed No | 66c | 199.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 197.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 191.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 187.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 177.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 12c | 144.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 141.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 77c | 133.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 17c | 127.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 9c | 119.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 15c | 107.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 15c | 96.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 24c | 54.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 50.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 33c | 50.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 44.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…4cacbacked No | 71c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.