TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,877 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes33c1,468$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8610539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c1,002$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.688,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No69c350$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c334.04$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.34,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No69c251.28$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c242$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No72c229.24$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.198060%48 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c218.5$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c216.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.572,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c215$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.834,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes26c194.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.961,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c191.6$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.645,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c189.34$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes10c188$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c177.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.076,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c175.39$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.711,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes36c156.09$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x271e…8eb9backed No62c153.1$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.184658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c143.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.82,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c136.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No67c127.61$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No59c108$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes14c107.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4518567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No58c102.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c102.35$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.164,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No66c100.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.646,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3642547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No57c99.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f2…ef25backed Yes30c96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.83351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No55c93.35$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.011,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes34c93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.621,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes21c92.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8361929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No71c91.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.254,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes17c86.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.012,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes22c84.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.622,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes37c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes29c78.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.172,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes31c74.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.242,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes43c72.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.823,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes36c69.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes39c68.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed Yes28c65.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes26c63.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes28c60.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.773,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes19c56.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes35c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.933350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c53.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.395,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.546452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2157747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.512233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes35c47.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes35c47.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.627925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes21c47.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes32c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c45.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c44.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8421451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No69c36.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No67c30.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c30.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed No76c27.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c26.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.382,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes39c26.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No69c24.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5413852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No69c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.831,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No57c20.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6230849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb5…d2c8backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No62c18.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.384,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No60c16.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6894066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.