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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,081 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes41c8,711$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,115.6210539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes35c1,450$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.511,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c1,207$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.32,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c990.06$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.928,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43228541.1%117 W · 168 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No63c720$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.31,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c624.3$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.8410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes45c537.04$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2957143.4%248 W · 323 L-32.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes40c465.43$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.212,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes42c430$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.615,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes43c393.73$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.433,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c354.55$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.935,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c270$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.426,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No65c254.89$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.651,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes42c195$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8513540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No56c194.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.682,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c191.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.745,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes38c186.66$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.841,02340.1%410 W · 613 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c185.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.294,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c177.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.926,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No36c175.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.451,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes41c163.69$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9380247.3%379 W · 423 L-29.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c159.65$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6312,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No54c140.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.487,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes38c140$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.610042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes75c133.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1857654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No11c131.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14,31353.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L+158.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No46c127.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c125$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.054,14856.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L+51.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c123.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.792,30427%622 W · 1,682 L-41.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.892355.9%516 W · 407 L+2.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.525440.9%104 W · 150 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No55c116.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5133350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes33c116.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.915044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes61c107.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6718567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes39c106$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c105$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.72,04361.7%1,261 W · 782 L+2.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c104.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.047,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes33c104$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.335,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No56c102.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7257757.7%333 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked No56c102.17$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No62c100.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.11,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3785548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.51250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5022645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes35c99.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c95.71$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.743,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes34c95.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.464654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c94.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.512,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes52c92.95$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.152,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes39c88.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1762146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No39c88.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No61c88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No46c82.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.944,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10d…8f16backed No60c80.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.891040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c79.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.196,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes32c79.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes42c79.66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No57c78.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2920958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes44c77.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4315868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes31c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.751,30132.9%428 W · 873 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.364,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53,12661.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L-30.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c74.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.125,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes49c71.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9363750.1%319 W · 318 L+32.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.115950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No60c66.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.992,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…b81fbacked No67c66.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.332850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes48c61.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9742447.9%203 W · 221 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes41c61.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.338346.7%179 W · 204 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.213852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.426067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No52c57.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes60c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.441041.5%170 W · 240 L+33.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1592334.1%315 W · 608 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes34c54.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.372,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No61c52.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2951552%268 W · 247 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No68c51.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,18457.4%680 W · 504 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2721950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd47…c395backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes40c49.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8270645.8%323 W · 383 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes31c49.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5812233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes79c49.65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.472450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes34c47.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.712,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes41c47.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.186046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No52c47.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.778450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.