Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b18fbf7b3b3e8f5c9ee09ec21f3a4a63e252b040a6c42fa255a3914eeaaf2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 984.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 794.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 16c | 701.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 24c | 518.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 415.11$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 252.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 10c | 195.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked No | 78c | 172.22$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 11c | 170.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 163.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…1a95backed Yes | 18c | 141.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 19c | 137.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 114.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 111.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…8344backed Yes | 30c | 85.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 80.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 73.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 20c | 66.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 50.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 34.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 29.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ef…87e4backed No | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 70c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.