Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f40bcdc8f2fe99e0a6d792a7d251a1ca8821203d2ae72de8d5736cee9de0ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 50c | 2,239$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.24 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 58c | 1,040$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 689$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 600.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 533.48$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 469.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 430.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 406.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 402.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 367.6$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 36c | 364.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 248.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 51c | 245.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 241.21$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 230.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 61c | 217.29$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 208.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 203.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 65c | 199.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 46c | 174.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 26c | 162.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 145$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 140.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 130.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 114.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 105.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 66c | 104.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb733…6cc4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…6090backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 51c | 92.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 43c | 91.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 38c | 87.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 38c | 80.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 77.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 76.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 67.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 27c | 65.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 62.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 52c | 62.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 60.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 56.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 33c | 56.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 54c | 56.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 44c | 50.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…7d9bbacked Yes | 55c | 48.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 53c | 47.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked Yes | 29c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 26c | 42.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 43c | 42.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 58c | 41.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…7cccbacked No | 52c | 40.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 59c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 54c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 57c | 34.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 32.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 31.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…bd66backed No | 63c | 30.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 51c | 29.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 28.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 51c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…6f4abacked Yes | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…363fbacked Yes | 44c | 25.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…61c1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…3546backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…0daebacked No | 65c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 59c | 17.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.