Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f800d3b37252d64039d0ac9f1aadfae0b11f4f4ddc5d883e370edf13f43be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 29c | 1,633$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.65 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 2c | 1,138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 71c | 519.84$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 499.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 459.03$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 430.26$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 252.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 248.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 70c | 245.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 217.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 208.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 70c | 185$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 178.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 169.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 157.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 152.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 148.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 137.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 127.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 115$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 64c | 111.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 109.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 97.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 87.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 79.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 51c | 78.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 63.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 62.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 59.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 35c | 53.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 73c | 47.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 42.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 39.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 39.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 80c | 35.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 29.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 29.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 68c | 29.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 27.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 72c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…283cbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 69c | 24.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 51c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 59c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 20.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 74c | 17.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…717dbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.