UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b198a421978878f46c73642759488eb590102cee2a087973e3634e8d8e25976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 35c | 4,645$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.88 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 31c | 4,563$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.81 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Under | 66c | 1,800$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 63c | 1,657$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.14 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 32c | 1,542$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Under | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 69c | 1,447$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.8 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 828.93$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 28c | 787.81$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Under | 69c | 725$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 73c | 659.47$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Under | 66c | 597.01$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Under | 68c | 552.1$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 32c | 503$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Under | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 67c | 451.57$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 410$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Under | 69c | 382.45$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…4b17backed Under | 68c | 360$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 11c | 293.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Over | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…d67bbacked Under | 72c | 104.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 28c | 79.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f4…1ac8backed Under | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 58c | 63.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 29c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Under | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman (Heavyweight, Prelims)Anthony Wint won
- Will Anthony Wint win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Terrance Chatman win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.