Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b2dacd97a9c467d6898c09656bfc285972213789b2f8dd9511d8be2d64bd315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 229.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 202.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 198.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 51c | 173.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 168.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 9c | 152.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 52c | 144.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 122.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 117.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 80.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 78.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 45c | 76.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 62c | 76.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 75.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 74.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 52c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 68.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 57.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 49c | 54.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 50.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 49.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 40c | 49.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 49c | 49.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 43.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 40.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed No | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 37.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 36.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 54c | 35.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 33.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 53c | 30.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 47c | 29.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 52c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 52c | 28.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 55c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…45bebacked Yes | 60c | 24.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 23.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 52c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 52c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 19.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.