TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nongshim Red Forceof BNK FEARX, Nongshim Red Force
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,843 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbb…9a17backed Nongshim Red Force64c16,175$10,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,888.3425143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed BNK FEARX39c13,000$5,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,125.9391854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Nongshim Red Force66c10,553$6,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,588.1615153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Nongshim Red Force60c7,000$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.9970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked BNK FEARX37c7,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9967552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked BNK FEARX36c5,319$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91559248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed BNK FEARX36c4,115$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Nongshim Red Force62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52059450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BNK FEARX36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked BNK FEARX36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016047.5%76 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Nongshim Red Force61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97514549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Nongshim Red Force65c1,817$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.819344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Nongshim Red Force60c1,684$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.441,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Nongshim Red Force62c1,620$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.61,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed BNK FEARX39c1,610$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62843640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Nongshim Red Force66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.157140.8%29 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked BNK FEARX36c1,394$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.7214352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed BNK FEARX36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010239.2%40 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12c…ed3dbacked Nongshim Red Force61c1,192$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.112649.2%62 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked BNK FEARX36c1,100$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3969738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed BNK FEARX34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34052750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed BNK FEARX34c999.96$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9910346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked BNK FEARX36c992.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.486136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked BNK FEARX52c961.73$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Nongshim Red Force48c961.35$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.935054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked BNK FEARX36c952$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7244743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4b…4a75backed BNK FEARX38c869.96$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.598751.7%45 W · 42 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Nongshim Red Force62c820.56$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.811,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed BNK FEARX13c575.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.961,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nongshim Red Force60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20035243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed BNK FEARX36c480.56$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17356432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Nongshim Red Force61c477.19$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1817136.3%62 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed BNK FEARX44c448$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7539859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x565a…3207backed BNK FEARX36c425$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Nongshim Red Force60c399.98$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.991,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Nongshim Red Force65c361.3$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.451,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed Nongshim Red Force61c350$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.511246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BNK FEARX35c319.17$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7149847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e2…68f1backed BNK FEARX36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10821256.1%119 W · 93 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed BNK FEARX38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked BNK FEARX38c288.45$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6140752.3%213 W · 194 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7243…e409backed BNK FEARX7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BNK FEARX51c238.82$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2823832.4%77 W · 161 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed BNK FEARX46c216.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed BNK FEARX35c172.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5460849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb63a…37b0backed Nongshim Red Force62c169.26$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.323056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Nongshim Red Force65c166.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2249346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked BNK FEARX36c152.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.051,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed BNK FEARX58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.827248.9%133 W · 139 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Nongshim Red Force42c148.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5475150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed BNK FEARX36c145.78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4813352.6%70 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Nongshim Red Force22c142.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.21,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed BNK FEARX36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,25154.1%677 W · 574 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec6…0e3abacked BNK FEARX40c138.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.42356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6392…52ddbacked BNK FEARX37c130$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.642049.3%207 W · 213 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc623…5808backed BNK FEARX40c128.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3712446%57 W · 67 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3a…8ab7backed BNK FEARX40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504951%25 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f90…6269backed BNK FEARX40c124.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.562450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed BNK FEARX36c123.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6218849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Nongshim Red Force53c121.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2934849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed BNK FEARX38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4676028.9%220 W · 540 L-0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Nongshim Red Force55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4541343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed BNK FEARX60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.722324.7%55 W · 168 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab4…f836backed BNK FEARX35c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.58043.8%35 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked BNK FEARX38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.442751.5%220 W · 207 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8637…0c86backed Nongshim Red Force66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7611762.4%73 W · 44 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8a2…86debacked Nongshim Red Force65c66.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.139655.2%53 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2b…2f59backed Nongshim Red Force67c58.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+62.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21a2…abb3backed BNK FEARX36c54.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.774766%31 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked BNK FEARX36c52.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.855429.6%16 W · 38 L-10.8wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0637…1636backed BNK FEARX39c52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.289752.6%51 W · 46 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Nongshim Red Force61c51.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9318952.9%100 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Nongshim Red Force62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961256.2%344 W · 268 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed BNK FEARX39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510657.5%61 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06b…c1e1backed Nongshim Red Force50c45.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.783574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+42.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x08f6…cd51backed Nongshim Red Force65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.462060%12 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Nongshim Red Force63c32.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9529948.8%146 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Nongshim Red Force62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2613348.9%65 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bf…8ec8backed BNK FEARX36c30.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118555.1%102 W · 83 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Nongshim Red Force63c30.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1611651.7%60 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked BNK FEARX54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.253955.1%297 W · 242 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked BNK FEARX36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810556.2%59 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Nongshim Red Force56c29.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9722955.5%127 W · 102 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x877c…1bb2backed Nongshim Red Force65c22.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.826854.4%37 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.