Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Wakana Sonobe vs Sofia Kenin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b657328861696f438fb20e1eee2932c39249eab9c5feada7dab6f137d2304d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keninof Sonobe, Kenin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Sonobe | 39c | 10,813$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.44 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Kenin | 65c | 9,499$6,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,320.37 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonobe | 28c | 4,883$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.54 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonobe | 34c | 2,688$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Sonobe | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sonobe | 35c | 1,927$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.77 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Kenin | 65c | 1,077$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.74 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonobe | 35c | 918$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.27 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sonobe | 28c | 855.51$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.62 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Kenin | 69c | 694.18$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.38 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Kenin | 59c | 642.86$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.24 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kenin | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sonobe | 26c | 598.56$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…e7aabacked Kenin | 64c | 500$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Sonobe | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sonobe | 28c | 474.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Kenin | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Kenin | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…90b2backed Kenin | 74c | 376.72$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Kenin | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Sonobe | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Kenin | 57c | 209.63$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sonobe | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonobe | 25c | 203$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…64fdbacked Kenin | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Sonobe | 49c | 185.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Kenin | 73c | 169.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Sonobe | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…920cbacked Kenin | 73c | 149.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Sonobe | 27c | 138.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Kenin | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…b437backed Kenin | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Kenin | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kenin | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Kenin | 74c | 100.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Sonobe | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked Kenin | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Kenin | 54c | 85.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Sonobe | 31c | 82.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Sonobe | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Kenin | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Sonobe | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…4e84backed Kenin | 77c | 64.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…b5cbbacked Kenin | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Kenin | 68c | 59.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sonobe | 22c | 58.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Kenin | 56c | 54.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Kenin | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…4207backed Kenin | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…adc7backed Kenin | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…cf50backed Kenin | 45c | 48.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…bfa2backed Sonobe | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Kenin | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…bf65backed Kenin | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Kenin | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Kenin | 55c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Sonobe | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c5…8cadbacked Kenin | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc6…c3c3backed Kenin | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1b26backed Kenin | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…0f5fbacked Kenin | 74c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Kenin | 76c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…276bbacked Kenin | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Kenin | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Kenin | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…e354backed Kenin | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.