Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc138e3e608fc0c0b21c9ff68417d8e29522ee85b5ee5f88e5313c329b1a6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 40c | 5,919$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,531.35 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 2,371$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 56c | 1,065$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 528.29$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 47c | 367.06$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.47 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 366.64$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 60c | 332.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 200.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 22c | 198.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 65c | 194.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Under | 22c | 149.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 66c | 124.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Over | 61c | 73.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 57c | 61.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…91aabacked Over | 65c | 44.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 43c | 38.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 59c | 34.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 59c | 24.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Over | 62c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 0.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.