MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdddd2b60d855b31a669940624926c728430ad5c763977e506d1dd40ff6a69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 5,745$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 4,028$2,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 2,658$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 72c | 2,106$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 886.03$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 505.28$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 9c | 399$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies | 70c | 305$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 110.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 92.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 82.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 66.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 60.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 49.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 48.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 38.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 30.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 23.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Colorado Rockies | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 22.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…076ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.