MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b7386b9ef4a1b330d236276bc663fab97e7a1112e2021cdae0e071ec046494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 5,785$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 61c | 3,500$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 3,319$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 2,052$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 39c | 1,416$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.8 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 62c | 538.5$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.21 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 431.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 270.13$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 38c | 204.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 39c | 165.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 39c | 165.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 100.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 39c | 99.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 39c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 39c | 79.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 47.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 45.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 39c | 41.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 40c | 38.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 71c | 35.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 39c | 34.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 39c | 32.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 38c | 29.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.