MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc844dd4c00556f733322ce936793da37277cb9a19ccb96db8b491ad84acf03b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 45c | 33,451$15,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,048.34 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 29,894$16,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,452.41 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 2,448$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.45 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 74c | 2,381$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.49 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 42c | 2,090$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.94 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 1,158$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.33 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 984.18$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.04 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 925$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.5 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 384.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 181$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 58c | 144.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 64c | 71.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 25c | 62.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 52.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 59c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 40.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 27c | 40.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 27c | 40.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Over | 43c | 35.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 31c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 59c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.