MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15902b1bd051eb2bde231f4bc5e405b36bff4279fc841d5118aca133cc82476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 55c | 97,400$53,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,232.85 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 47c | 31,815$14,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,861.95 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 29,110$12,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,878.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 17,535$8,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,334.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 14,523$6,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,720.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 12,879$6,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.44 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.49 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.49 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 47c | 2,123$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.03 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 57c | 1,877$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.69 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,003$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 53c | 1,002$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 676.5$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 585$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 68c | 558.5$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 550.86$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.87 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 536.46$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.78 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 391.64$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 378.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 377.56$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 360$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 285$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 65c | 252.28$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.98 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 236.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 47c | 204.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 56c | 171.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 35c | 142.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 47c | 108.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 47c | 106.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 47c | 95.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 28c | 65.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 41.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 36.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 35.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 53c | 34.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 48c | 32.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 47c | 28.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 47c | 24.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.