Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdeb652b6bb4642c79671930468831d9ac2f3723780d23e409d992524868299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 1,386$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.09 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime | 57c | 873.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.86 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 733.49$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed PlayTime | 78c | 733.49$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 608.63$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 499.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…74a7backed PlayTime | 77c | 392.43$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed PlayTime | 78c | 390.93$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…a60dbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 389$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 345.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Team Nemesis | 17c | 312.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Team Nemesis | 43c | 299.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…e3c8backed PlayTime | 50c | 296$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed PlayTime | 51c | 259$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 227.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…e293backed PlayTime | 59c | 215.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…bef4backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked PlayTime | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked PlayTime | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked PlayTime | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed PlayTime | 57c | 175.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 170.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed PlayTime | 50c | 151.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked PlayTime | 50c | 142.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked PlayTime | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked PlayTime | 79c | 99.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed PlayTime | 58c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked PlayTime | 51c | 76.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Team Nemesis | 20c | 69.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Nemesis | 45c | 66.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked PlayTime | 56c | 54.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed PlayTime | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked PlayTime | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 35.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked PlayTime | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed PlayTime | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed PlayTime | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed PlayTime | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked PlayTime | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed PlayTime | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked PlayTime | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPlayTime won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerPlayTime won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.