Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf40bee1b78ccb17f4e1e47c026160ce2864c0449bcc04d22c9378156975bf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 77c | 3,874$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.86 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 601.19$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.38 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 24c | 533.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 24c | 417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 26c | 299.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 183$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 155.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed Under | 77c | 129.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 115.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 53c | 83.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 79.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 25c | 67.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 66.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 155 | 68.4%106 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 74c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)Heracles Almelo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.