Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x139d9d453db1aa7f756b7dd5b636e045940f99bbe02db812c7ca46084cede94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Under | 59c | 36,036$21,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,715.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 4,099$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.19 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 41c | 3,200$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 3,006$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.11 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 41c | 2,400$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 1,610$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.15 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 40c | 1,350$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 41c | 1,210$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 41c | 1,184$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.44 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 40c | 1,139$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 39c | 1,105$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 41c | 1,098$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 1,075$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.42 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 41c | 920$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 736.09$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 622.66$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.65 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 41c | 576$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.27 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 40c | 546.59$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.85 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 41c | 520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 41c | 520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 411.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Over | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 41c | 320$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 41c | 312$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 41c | 312$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 41c | 304$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 291.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 41c | 280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 268.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 39c | 253.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 52c | 222.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 41c | 213$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 72c | 209.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 44c | 165.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 149$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 58c | 133.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 43c | 116.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 83.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 41c | 73.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 60c | 51.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 40c | 46.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 109 | 29.4%32 W · 77 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 72c | 25.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 72c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)Heracles Almelo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.