Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf7423446522d30aaf4f602316acfeb6370e5c39c6094baca9cbf3902dbf0a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 79c | 641.99$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 18c | 631.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 23c | 550$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 306.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 47c | 283.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 226.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 220.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 146.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 36c | 131.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 117.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 31c | 101.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 99.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed No | 69c | 96.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 37c | 93.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 91.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 90.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 83.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 78.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 63c | 76.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 15c | 75.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 28c | 72.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 68.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…5ecebacked Yes | 40c | 66.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 28c | 65.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 68c | 63.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 55.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 55.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 31c | 50.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 50.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 48.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 24c | 45.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked Yes | 33c | 40.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…7ee6backed Yes | 32c | 37.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 27c | 37.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 29c | 36.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…2d55backed Yes | 33c | 33.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 72c | 33.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 52c | 30.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 36c | 28.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 68c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 77c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 65c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.