Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b67c43c580898703caa9bc8e3c7cf96f638862e04c850b5c17f867198e977b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 311.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 309.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 18c | 274.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 18c | 250.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 229.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 187.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 182.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 172.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 156.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 140.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 134.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 17c | 124.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 13c | 118.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 85.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 83.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 81.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 36c | 77.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 72.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 16c | 71.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 70c | 59.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 22c | 57.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 78c | 49.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 49.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 36.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 80c | 34.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 77c | 30.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 70c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 80c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.