Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bfdef263fb6bb534c8c1548388e765cbe93e55147b9bfabfea1b731c57fe67b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora | 52c | 787.96$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.37 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 464$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Virtus.pro | 41c | 407.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.16 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 393.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.57 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Aurora | 59c | 359.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora | 54c | 344.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.23 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Aurora | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Virtus.pro | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 32c | 247$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 223$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Aurora | 56c | 204.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Virtus.pro | 58c | 159.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…a44bbacked Aurora | 59c | 86.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Aurora | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Aurora | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Virtus.pro | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Aurora | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Aurora | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Virtus.pro | 68c | 15.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Virtus.pro | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.