Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8c73053f87575a7faa06ca2ea1bda80aceaf36373defa2103cb9a97f6f1900a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 26,581$8,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,186.03 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 13,475$4,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,877.72 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 63c | 12,240$7,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,483.23 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 69c | 12,085$8,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.8 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 52c | 11,265$5,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,458.66 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 8,717$5,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,441.62 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 70c | 7,226$5,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.07 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 7,000$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 53c | 5,960$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.22 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 74c | 5,250$3,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.55 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 65c | 3,600$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.17 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 3,275$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.31 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro | 22c | 3,249$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.05 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 2,507$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.32 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Aurora | 65c | 2,134$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.3 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 65c | 2,088$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 1,914$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.79 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Virtus.pro | 12c | 1,797$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 64c | 1,781$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.08 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 1,692$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.08 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 46c | 1,510$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.39 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 63c | 1,500$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 61c | 1,458$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.75 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 69c | 1,308$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.42 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 59c | 1,251$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.67 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 72c | 1,162$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.73 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…7e85backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 1,159$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.08 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Aurora | 69c | 1,123$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.62 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Virtus.pro | 24c | 1,120$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.84 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 57c | 1,034$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.19 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 51c | 1,017$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.03 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Aurora | 63c | 1,007$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.51 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Aurora | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 936.39$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 56c | 934.08$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.53 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 75c | 734.64$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.09 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Aurora | 70c | 722.7$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.81 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Aurora | 57c | 700.98$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.18 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Virtus.pro | 21c | 679.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora | 58c | 647.5$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 68c | 638.25$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.92 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 62c | 631.26$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.83 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro | 41c | 617.65$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.56 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 613.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro | 3c | 591.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 569.83$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora | 75c | 530$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Virtus.pro | 21c | 517.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…3d54backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro | 38c | 509.75$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora | 59c | 508.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.81 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 495.14$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Aurora | 42c | 471.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.18 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Aurora | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Aurora | 67c | 446.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora | 59c | 436.15$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Virtus.pro | 42c | 421.09$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.94 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Aurora | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…b4fabacked Virtus.pro | 42c | 384.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | +14.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 384.56$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.36 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 62c | 363.26$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Aurora | 73c | 342.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Aurora | 73c | 336.82$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…53d1backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 328.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Virtus.pro | 47c | 321.9$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 320$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…32a2backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Aurora | 54c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 70c | 297$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Aurora | 68c | 291.32$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…e194backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 283.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 278.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 92 | 10.9%10 W · 82 L | -18.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 254.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Virtus.pro | 6c | 253.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 251.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Aurora | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Virtus.pro | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Virtus.pro | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 249.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 246.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Aurora | 61c | 243$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Aurora | 64c | 240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…8fabbacked Aurora | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 71c | 236.1$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Virtus.pro | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 221.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Aurora | 68c | 216.62$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Virtus.pro | 43c | 206.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Aurora | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 58c | 195.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora | 55c | 182.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5)Virtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.