TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Aurora, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,731 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro30c33,299$9,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,318.821,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora70c19,038$13,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,369.722,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro33c7,045$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,749.8950832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro32c5,831$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.281,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora70c5,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro64c4,650$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.7692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora70c4,515$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.4996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Aurora70c2,371$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.741351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora66c2,150$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.9979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro26c1,992$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.181,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Aurora70c1,966$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.4835951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Virtus.pro29c1,837$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.199257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Virtus.pro29c1,643$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.5368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro23c1,486$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.4656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed Virtus.pro30c1,435$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.67736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora71c1,419$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.5356955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora71c1,409$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3913851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf775…a5b3backed Virtus.pro29c1,240$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Virtus.pro22c1,200$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.111,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro55c1,083$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.821,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed Aurora65c1,059$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.126163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora72c1,049$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.2835151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4af…7dc0backed Aurora1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-75.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora59c896.34$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.841,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Virtus.pro12c836.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.839951.5%51 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora5c829.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.016132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora74c809.99$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.912,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Virtus.pro25c794.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.055848.3%28 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked Aurora71c710$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.18469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Virtus.pro29c689.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.6696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Aurora60c673.74$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.242576%19 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro38c596.47$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.41,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora72c552.6$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.392,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora73c541$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Aurora75c530$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.510048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora68c520.74$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.061,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora64c502.14$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3744149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro25c499.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro28c496.74$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.4689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Aurora72c400$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28834544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Aurora75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Virtus.pro17c350.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5917644.9%79 W · 97 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd991…c1dabacked Virtus.pro29c348.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.592944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Aurora72c341.54$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4653139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Aurora75c330.95$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7622363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Aurora17c328.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5516959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora51c326.77$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6924947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora75c325.26$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8545750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Virtus.pro30c314.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.2657654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b9…05a0backed Aurora19c298.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.419210.9%10 W · 82 L-18.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-77.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Aurora71c297.01$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8858356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Aurora71c292$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3241050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Virtus.pro50c271$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7213558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Aurora70c250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Aurora53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro28c229.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5437223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Virtus.pro34c227.72$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Aurora71c214$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9414750.3%74 W · 73 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Aurora69c207$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Virtus.pro22c201.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6179341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Virtus.pro30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Aurora71c191.1$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.071,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora72c173.37$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8325248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2831…8fabbacked Aurora58c171.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c9…e194backed Virtus.pro38c165.79$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.794035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Virtus.pro26c165$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Virtus.pro25c156.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6191553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro17c153.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.611,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x219c…fed6backed Virtus.pro24c148$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.983033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro26c143.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.451,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Aurora71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e90…9a72backed Aurora75c132.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.184168.3%28 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora49c122$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6165337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Aurora47c121.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7489938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa77…bf95backed Virtus.pro33c120.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7425953.3%138 W · 121 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Aurora73c118.89$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7910751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Virtus.pro27c111$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0318351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Aurora70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7066848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Aurora72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7258250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Aurora26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x175f…dd2bbacked Virtus.pro72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.84254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Aurora73c99.63$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7339550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Virtus.pro39c99.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6524034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Aurora49c87.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0933854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb63a…37b0backed Aurora72c83.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa574…0559backed Virtus.pro28c79.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.615176.5%39 W · 12 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora72c75.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.861,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro25c74.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.151,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Virtus.pro25c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.529432.3%95 W · 199 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Aurora44c65.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9528846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Virtus.pro38c59.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6927636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked Aurora39c58.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6922740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed Aurora72c55.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da7…b914backed Aurora73c54.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.52850%14 W · 14 L-5.6wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe23f…196fbacked Virtus.pro30c50.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.474454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f30…8df6backed Virtus.pro37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.516555.2%91 W · 74 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Aurora72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.