Europa Conference League · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c16f41116e8b2244d426421e69bf27f7b1b2840f771d2d8d91fd175eaac18a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,334 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 4,835$3,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.59 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 25c | 3,255$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.75 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 25c | 2,249$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.33 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 615.61$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 21c | 571.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 25c | 419.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 25c | 202.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Under | 76c | 125.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 21c | 96.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…aad5backed Under | 78c | 89.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 67.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 73c | 29.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 76c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…072dbacked Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.