MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c3d2ec8f3bf4a8b21811d6aed3dfa450bd383ca0e262aa1913dd1e7a0512bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 726.09$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 630.59$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 526.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 355.34$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 341.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 325.31$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…5a4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 306.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 248.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 224.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 215.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 145.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 124.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 124$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 117.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4911…0bd0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 115.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 108.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 86.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…13c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 71.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 40.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 28.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-9.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.