Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c55705db9f3d7b0b7324f0329cf3473f05c828aa9784563c3da6c03d4ef444c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 5c | 1,282$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Yes | 29c | 718.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 572.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 517.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 414.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 18c | 355.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 338.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 281.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 233.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 11c | 196.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 31c | 184.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 128.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 81.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 30.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 30.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.