TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,661 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19f4…c772backed Yes3c13,589$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.771,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes1c9,082$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0128324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked Yes1c5,348$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4725230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes0c3,475$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.177,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes32c1,820$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.7942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes1c1,043$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1343540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c721.35$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c511.2$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c468$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.094,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes35c423$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes37c391.5$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.471,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes27c370.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0144536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c350.63$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.542,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c326$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.833,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c325.29$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5184…1363backed Yes31c321.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-45.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No68c290.47$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c279.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.212,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes4c268.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7547239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes28c224.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.681,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes19c193.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8832440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No76c191.75$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No76c179.63$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.294,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c170$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c164.93$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.442,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c154.01$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.812,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0691…af35backed No74c135.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd48…1e93backed No75c132.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.797852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No68c106$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.721,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c101$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes39c99.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1353925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes26c95.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.312755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes30c94.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.563,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes20c91.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.597549.3%37 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes16c83.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No68c83.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4415850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2637…b1d9backed Yes22c82.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181822.2%4 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes23c82.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No68c80.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8845675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c77.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c74.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c71.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No71c68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7215966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes32c67.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5954253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.628666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8113637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes23c56.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e8…2e62backed No70c56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.84971.4%35 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes31c55.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.91,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No69c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0554853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No74c54.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c53.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.13,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522937.1%85 W · 144 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No61c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No74c48.69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.662,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes24c48.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4317635.2%62 W · 114 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970f…91bfbacked No69c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes40c45.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.153,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes27c41.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2514250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No76c40.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No77c37.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6214945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb6f…5597backed No60c35.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c31.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.924,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3473…e864backed Yes36c31.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.611134.2%38 W · 73 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c31.69$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.199,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes33c31.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3130136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No77c30.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.112,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.73,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.288561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes49c28.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.14571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1219071.6%136 W · 54 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No70c27.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3554656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.295675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1325…8fd1backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No79c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.142,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No70c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5625868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No74c21.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.643959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.919965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.416946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.418254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No72c18.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No69c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.