Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d9d80f9344946d437b0d78e59ef8df196fb37bc9ca3004010f81b90ae0216b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 858.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…51d2backed No | 65c | 742.69$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 719.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 385.33$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 24c | 358.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 35c | 356.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 332.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 35c | 320$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 284.14$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 200.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 192.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 186.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 75c | 177.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 64c | 177.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 177.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 169.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 166.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 164.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 160.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 151.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 35c | 150.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 11c | 150.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 139.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 22c | 122.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 119.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 117.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 67c | 115.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 108.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 106.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 97.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 22c | 92.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 63c | 83.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 76.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 25c | 61.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 38c | 59.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 59.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 27c | 51.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 43.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 37.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 30.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 70c | 25.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.